NIGERI:Jonathan Leads with 60%, PDP May Lose Five States


By Imam Imam
President Goodluck Jonathan
The latest poll conducted by THISDAY/Ipsos ahead of the 2011 general election indicates that President Goodluck Jonathan may secure 60.3 per cent of popular votes in the presidential election. However, his party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), may lose the governorship polls in five states.
In the poll conducted in the 36 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) between February 25 and March 16, 2011, 60.3 per cent of respondents said they would vote for Jonathan in the presidential election, while his closest rival, Major General Muhammadu Buhari of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) scored 22.4 per cent.
Malam Ibrahim Shekarau, the flag bearer of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), scored 5.9 per cent, while the candidate of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Malam Nuhu Ribadu, scored 4.7 per cent. Shekarau was generally acclaimed to have won the presidential debate last week but this poll had been conducted before then.
Buhari has a clear lead among polled samples in Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, Jigawa and Bauchi and further holds narrow leads in Katsina, Kano, Kaduna, Yobe, Borno and Gombe.
Jonathan leads in all Southern states with the exception of Ekiti, where Ribadu has a 54-per-cent score, and Osun, which is considered too close to call, even though Jonathan leads. Ribadu and Shekarau had a strong showing in the state, thereby making it difficult to call for Jonathan.
A noticeable trend is the likelihood that PDP may win governorship in a state and lose presidential in the same state – or vice versa.
In Lagos, for instance, over 80 per cent of the polled voters said they would vote for Jonathan (PDP presidential), while 92 per cent said they would vote for Babatunde Fashola (ACN) in the governorship election.
It is even more common in some Northern states where PDP could win governorship and lose presidential in Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Sokoto and Zamfara.
Also, PDP is in danger of losing the governorship elections in four of the states it currently controls – Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue and Imo.
In Bauchi, the CPC candidate, Yusuf Maitama Tugar, was rated the highest by respondents. He scored 55 per cent, leaving the incumbent Malam Isa Yuguda of the PDP with 34 per cent; the ANPP flag bearer Nazeef Gamawa with 6 per cent; and ACN candidate Baba Tela with 4 per cent.
In the president’s home state of Bayelsa, former Managing Director of the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) and former presidential adviser on amnesty, Mr. Timi Alaibe, led with 56 per cent among the polled potential voters, while the incumbent Chief Timipre Sylva scored 44 per cent. Alaibe is of the Labour Party (LP), while Sylva is flying the flag of PDP.
A similar scenario is playing out in Benue State where the PDP governor, Hon. Gabriel Suswam, is trailing the ACN candidate, Professor Steve Ugbah. Suswam has 19 per cent, while his rival has 72 per cent.
Imo is also endangered for the ruling party as Governor Ikedi Ohakim trails Chief Rochas Okorocha of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA). The state is considered too close to call because even though Okorocha polled 34 per cent in the survey, 41 per cent of the voters are still undecided. Ohakim has 14 per cent, while ACN’s Ifeanyi Araraume has 12 per cent.
In Kebbi, the PDP ranks third, meaning Governor Saidu Dakingari could lose his position to either ACN’s Kabir Turaki, who scored 44 per cent, or CPC’s Abubakar Shettima who scored 41 per cent. The state is still too close to call.
The battle ground states for governorship, according to the survey, are Kebbi, Zamfara, Kaduna, Borno, Oyo and Delta.
But the PDP remains competitive in Zamfara, where Governor Aliyu Shinkafi leads the pack by 43 per cent, closely pursued by ANPP’s Abdulazeez Yari with 37 per cent.
The PDP is also competitive in Oyo and Kaduna, where it holds narrow margins. In Borno, the poll favours the ruling party. It is too close to call in Delta but the ruling party is very competitive there.
The 62 per cent figure for the PDP in Ogun State is recorded in favour of Tunji Olurin, although it remains to be seen if this would change because both Olurin and Gboyega Isiaka were laying claim to the party’s ticket for a prolonged period.
Ipsos is one of the leading pollster companies in the world with more than 30 years of experience researching political attitudes.
It has the most long-term and comprehensive set of polling data of all polling agencies in the world.
Speaking to THISDAY yesterday on the latest polling results, the CEO for Sub-Saharan Africa, David Somers, said: “We initially designed a very large sample to cover the entire country. It’s a sample of 11,000 approximately of what we did in every state that will allow us to have estimate per state and in general. We conducted face to face interviews and as we talk to people in local dialects and personally on the ground, we asked people a series of questions about how they feel about life and about things in general and about things they want from their politicians. And ultimately for whom they will vote for whether at the presidential level or at the gubernatorial level. It’s honestly a traditional poll which we do all over the world.
“So the way we arrived at figures was to go to all the states, interview the people within those states and then aggregate all the data from the states up to a national level. We rate data accordingly so that each state will be represented correctly within the total national figure by the census and also by the voter registration. So we used as a waiting measure plus some other factors which we discovered while we went into this and that is how we got the national figures

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Download Youtube Video: Amanpour talks to Goodluck Jonathan


Download Youtube Video: Amanpour talks to Goodluck Jonathan.

Will you reconsider Prof. Iwu…Amanpour (Excerpt of Dr. Jonathan’s interview in America)


AMANPOUR:

Thank you very much, indeed, for joining us on this program.

JONATHAN:

Thank you for finding time to discuss with me.

AMANPOUR:

Can I ask you first what an extraordinary name. How did “Goodluck” come to be your name?

JONATHAN:

I don’t know. I have to ask my father.

AMANPOUR:

Have you had good luck? And do you think you’ll need more than good luck to face down the incredible array of challenges that’s on your plate?

JONATHAN:

Well, the issue of good luck, I don’t really believe that the good luck an issue. But at the present, I’ve been facing a lot of challenges. What some people will attribute to good luck could have been disastrous under some circumstances.

AMANPOUR:

Well, let me ask you this. You are now acting president, because the president, Mr. Yar’Adua, is unwell.

JONATHAN:

Yes.

AMANPOUR:

Have you seen him since he has come back from his medical absence in Saudi Arabia?

JONATHAN:

No, I have not seen him.

AMANPOUR:

Why not?

JONATHAN:

The thinking of the family is that they should isolate him from most of the key actors in government. I have not seen him. The Senate president has not seen him …and at every single government function, I have not seen him.

AMANPOUR:

Doesn’t that cause anxiety amongst the people?

JONATHAN:

Yes, it does. It does. Obviously, it does, but we cannot influence his family’s thinking.

AMANPOUR:

Would you prefer that the family allowed you to visit him?

JONATHAN:

Yes, of course. But I will not want to force.

AMANPOUR:

What is his actual state of health? This also is a mystery.

JONATHAN:

I can’t say exactly. Only the medical doctors can.

AMANPOUR:

Have they told you?

JONATHAN:

No, they haven’t.

AMANPOUR:

Have they made any public statements?

JONATHAN:

Not quite. Not now. At the beginning, yes, but (Someone’s name – unclear) left for Saudi Arabia, I think in the second week or so, within the first week, we are told that acute pericarditis. After that, no other statement has been issued.

AMANPOUR:

So if he can receive religious leaders, why can he not receive at least the acting president who’s acting in his name?

JONATHAN:

Well, religious leaders are there for (inaudible) blessings. Probably that is why they asked the religious leaders to go and pray for him. We are a very, very religious society.

AMANPOUR:

Do you believe that those around him are trying to undermine you or your new cabinet?

JONATHAN:

I wouldn’t say they are trying to undermine me, because the laws of the land are very clear. And, of course, that is why in the first place constitution is designed for two people to be in charge of government at every time, one superior and one inferior.

AMANPOUR:

Do you think he will ever come back to government?

JONATHAN:

I can’t say that. It’s difficult for any of us as mortals to say so.

AMANPOUR:

So you are now acting president, and you have essentially a year, because elections will be held this time 2011.

JONATHAN:

Yes.

AMANPOUR:

What is your most pressing issue?

JONATHAN:

The most pressing issue for Nigerian now, in terms of basic infrastructure, is power.

AMANPOUR:

You mean electricity?

JONATHAN:

Electricity. Outside that, what is central to the minds of Nigerians now is an election that their votes will count, free and fair elections because we’ve been accused of as a country that our elections somehow are questioned. And I promise Nigerians that they will surely get that and I’ve done some experiments.

The next thing that Nigerians worry about is issues of corruption. You know we’ve been accused of as people who are in a privileged position in government amassing wealth at the expense of society. So they expect us to take these two issues seriously.

AMANPOUR:

So what can you do to take those issues seriously?

Obviously, the issue of good governance, of free elections, free of corruption is central, and you heard the United States has also said just now that you must remove the head of the election commission, Maurice Iwu. Will you do that?

JONATHAN:

You see, the issue of the – the electoral body – in fact, I even told the audience I addressed this morning, the issue is whether the present electoral body can conduct free and fair election or not. And I told them that, yes, they can, because I have done it with the same people.

On issue of the people at INEC, I told them that, look, between now and ending of June, most of the officials at the national level – they’re called commissioners – their tenure will end, and we’re going to review them on individual merit.

Within this period that I have been acting president, I have conducted three elections. They are conducted by INEC and it was free and fair. Only on Saturday, we conducted local council elections in the federal capital territory and all the information is that, apart from one or two that had some few discrepancies, they have been very peaceful, very credible… So that is the issue. So the issue is beyond one person.

AMANPOUR:

But let me just ask you…

JONATHAN:

I’m not defending the chairman.

AMANPOUR:

Do you think he will stay or will he be removed?

JONATHAN:

All of them we’ll review. And any one of them that we feel is not competent definitely…

AMANPOUR:

Do you feel that Mr. Iwu is competent?

JONATHAN:

(Laughs) No, no, no, no. I know that this question continues to come up.

What I’ve said is… the issue is beyond Mr. Iwu.

AMANPOUR:

I know. But I’m specifically talking about him, because it’s come up in your meetings with U.S. officials.

JONATHAN:

Yes, I agree that within the period that is (inaudible) there are quite a number of controversies. I agree. There are quite a number of concerns. There are quite a number of controversies. So I know what I’m telling you; that this very Iwu, I’m not trying to argue for him. The Iwu we are talking about has conducted free elections these past three elections that I’ve made reference to that are credible.

So the issue is beyond Iwu because we must set up an electoral system and our regulations and laws that will make sure that anybody who is appointed to that office should be able to conduct acceptable elections. And that is my focus.

AMANPOUR:

OK. Will you run in 2011? Will you present yourself as a presidential candidate?

JONATHAN:

For now, I don’t want to think about it, because the circumstances that – the circumstances of the day are quite worrisome.

I came in as the vice president to run with President Yar’Adua, of course, getting close to period of election, he took ill. And I have to take over under somewhat controversial circumstances. Only last week, I reconsidered the cabinet. So let us see how Nigeria will move forward first. I had a similar experience when I was governor of my state.

I said, nobody should ask me whether I will contest election or not. I must first of all see whether the state is moving. If the country is not moving, what what will I tell Nigerians I want to contest?